XRP's Struggle Amid Bitcoin's Macro-Driven Surge — A Market Analysis
By John Nada·Jul 18, 2026·4 min read
XRP lags as Bitcoin and Ethereum capitalize on macro shifts. The Clarity Act's delay adds uncertainty, leaving XRP on macro sentiment alone.
In brief, Bitcoin cleared $65K this week on softer inflation data. Thursday's pullback was orderly—most top 50 coins are off less than 3%, with Ondo the standout at +14%. XRP, however, is trading at $1.10, down 0.54%, with an overall indicator score of -42% and a confirmed death cross on the daily chart, according to Decrypt.
XRP's biggest near-term catalyst—a Senate floor vote on the Clarity Act—has slipped past July 4 and now appears likely to land in late July or August. The market took a breath after one of the cleaner macro-driven crypto pumps of 2026. As reported, the Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% in June, collapsing Fed rate hike odds for July from 31% to single digits, thereby lifting equities and giving crypto a reason to run.
Wall Street contributed too: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citi all beat Q2 earnings expectations, Decrypt noted. However, while Bitcoin broke the $64K resistance, Ethereum surged nearly 6% in a single day, touching $1,900. The dip seen today, with most top 50 coins off less than 3%, is consolidation. Ondo, up over 14%, leads the top 100 by market capitalization on tokenization momentum.
But not everyone is breathing hopium. XRP's rally was underwhelming. Opening Thursday at $1.11257, it touched a high of $1.11722, and now sits at $1.10650—down 0.54%. It didn't crash, but it didn't run either, not during the good days and not even now when the comparison is flattered by a market that's already pulling back. XRP failed to break the price resistance set by the Crypto Winter, and now the XRP Army doesn’t look as optimistic as other altcoin supporters.
Decrypt highlighted why: when money cautiously re-enters crypto after a risk-off period, it doesn't spread evenly. Bitcoin absorbs it first. Ethereum follows—and ETH historically leads broader crypto recoveries, which explains this week's events. Ethereum looks more bullish than Bitcoin in the short term, having suffered a more painful crash which may fuel stronger recovery momentum.
US Inflation Dips 0.4% — Largest Monthly Drop in Over Six Years
Inflation drops 0.
The Altcoin Season Index at 45 confirms capital hasn't rotated down the risk curve to altcoins yet. This dynamic was visible in early July too: when a $602 million short liquidation event sent Bitcoin back toward $62K, XRP managed just 3% while Ethereum and Solana nearly doubled that move. The missing piece is XRP's own catalyst. The Clarity Act, which could classify XRP as a commodity and unlock institutional ETF demand, missed its expected July 4 Senate floor vote. Without a date on the calendar, XRP is trading on macro sentiment alone—and losing that fight to Ethereum.
Currently, XRP’s price is at a decision point. It's testing a weak support zone of its most recent bearish leg—a move that ran from $1.18 down to $1.05. Now, the price could either hold here and push for $1.13, or lose the $1.08 level and reopen the path toward $1.06 and the critical $1.02 floor.
The ADX—Average Directional Index—reads 13.3, well below the 25 threshold that confirms a real trend is in place. It measures trend strength on a 0–100 scale, direction agnostic. A mild hope: the directional indicator is shifting from DI- (bearish dominance) toward DI+ (bullish dominance). At ADX 13.3, “shifting” is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
Decrypt adds that the Exponential Moving Averages—or EMAs—tell the clearest story. The average price of the last 50 days is trading well below the average price of the last 200 days, a formation known as the death cross. XRP has been stuck in it since sliding from its $3.65 all-time high in July 2025. There's no sign yet of the two averages beginning to converge.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index—sits at 48.5, right in the middle, showing no pressure in either direction. The Squeeze Momentum indicator is slightly positive at 0.81v, enough to say energy is building, not enough to predict direction. XRP may soon flash signals of price compression. Whether it breaks up or down will depend on Bitcoin holding $64K and Senate news on the Clarity Act schedule.