XRP's Price Chart Signals Potential Major Rally, Analysts Say
By John Nada·Mar 11, 2026·4 min read
XRP's price chart suggests a potential major rally, echoing patterns from 2017. Analysts highlight key resistance levels and declining exchange balances as indicators of accumulation.
XRP's weekly price chart is beginning to mirror a technical pattern that previously indicated a major cycle low, potentially setting the stage for a significant upside reversal. Analysts are drawing parallels between the current price trajectory and the 2017-2018 cycle, suggesting that XRP's recent sell-off from multi-year highs could be a precursor to a major price recovery.
The fractal analysis points to a critical resistance level between $1.78 and $2.30, where a breakout would need to occur for XRP bulls to confirm a sustained upward movement. A similar price pattern in 2017 saw XRP consolidate within a symmetrical triangle before breaking out and rallying by over 1,577%. Notably, the convergence of key technical indicators, such as the 100-week and 50-day simple moving averages at the $2 mark, further emphasizes this threshold.
The historical context adds depth to the current analysis. In 2017, XRP's price retraced to a low of $0.12 before it began its monumental ascent. This trajectory appears to be mirrored in the current market conditions, where XRP's recent drop to $1.10 resembles a retest of the lower trendline of a symmetrical triangle. The patterns suggest that we might be witnessing a repeat of that earlier phase, with the potential for a similar explosive rally if the appropriate conditions are met.
Commenting on this potential, crypto analyst Javon stated, "There is potential we see this overall run unfold in an identical manner," suggesting that the current phase is merely a temporary pullback before a move well above the $20 mark. This optimism is underpinned by a growing sense of confidence among investors, as evidenced by the declining exchange balances of XRP.
On-chain metrics reveal that XRP is experiencing declining exchange balances, indicating a trend of accumulation among investors. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the net number of XRP transfer transactions across major exchanges has reached record lows, suggesting heightened confidence as more investors withdraw XRP into private wallets. This trend is significant, with analysts noting that when such metrics decline, it typically indicates that more investors are choosing to withdraw their assets from exchanges, reflecting a long-term holding mentality rather than speculative trading.
Significant spikes in withdrawal transactions from platforms like Binance highlight this trend, with reports indicating over 14,000 withdrawal transactions on March 6 alone. This behavior suggests that investors are actively accumulating XRP and transferring their tokens to private wallets rather than keeping them on the exchange. The decrease in XRP's supply on exchanges has now dropped to levels not seen since May 2021, with the current balance reported at 12.9 billion. This decline in exchange reserves typically signals increasing investor confidence in the underlying asset, potentially pointing to a bullish outlook for XRP in the near future.
As XRP’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) data shows, large supply clusters remain above the spot price, creating additional overhead resistance. The $2 level accounts for 3.6% of the XRP supply, while $1.80 comprises 3.15%. These clusters indicate that any breakout must contend with significant selling pressure at these levels, making the path to new highs potentially challenging.
Additionally, institutional interest in XRP is becoming increasingly apparent, particularly following the easing outflows from US-based spot XRP ETFs. This trend has been notably influenced by Goldman Sachs emerging as a major holder, signaling a growing institutional belief in XRP's future potential. The shift in institutional sentiment could serve as a catalyst for retail investors as well, reinforcing the bullish narrative surrounding XRP.
Despite the optimism, analysts remain cautiously optimistic, noting that while the current price action resembles past bullish cycles, a decisive breakout above the critical resistance levels is necessary to fully validate this bullish scenario. Buyers will need to break and sustain the XRP price above the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern at $2 on the daily chart to signal a long-term trend change.
As XRP approaches these critical price levels, market participants are keenly observing the price movements to gauge the likelihood of a major upward trajectory, reminiscent of the notable surge seen in 2017. The interplay of technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and institutional interest paints a complex yet potentially rewarding landscape for XRP investors as they navigate the forthcoming weeks.
With these indicators and a historical framework in mind, the possibility of a substantial price rally for XRP is gaining traction among market participants. The convergence of bullish technical patterns, declining exchange balances, and renewed institutional interest positions XRP as a potential leader in the crypto market, should it manage to break through the established resistance levels and sustain its upward momentum.