As February begins, Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin, is already down 7% and poised for an eighth consecutive monthly decline. Last year marked its second-worst annual performance since adopting its bitcoin treasury strategy, with the stock currently trading near $141, down roughly 75% from its November 2024 record high of around $540.

The decline has been steep, particularly since July, with seven straight months of losses. By the end of 2025, the stock had plummeted 48% for the year, only slightly better than the disastrous 75% drop in 2022. In stark contrast, Bitcoin's price has decreased about 40% from its October all-time high, widening the performance gap between MSTR and Bitcoin to roughly 35%.

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In January, this spread even widened to 45%, matching a record last seen in 2021, according to checkonchain. Despite the downturn, the company’s multiple to net asset value (mNAV) stands at 1.09, indicating that it can still sell common stock through at-the-market offerings to buy Bitcoin.

However, if the stock continues its downward trend, future Bitcoin purchases will likely shrink. Should the mNAV dip below 1, Strategy may have to halt its purchases and wait for a market rebound, further complicating its position as a leading Bitcoin holder. The ongoing struggles reflect not just the company's challenges but also the broader volatility within the cryptocurrency market.

The implications are stark: as Strategy grapples with its declining stock performance and the pressures of the Bitcoin market, investors will need to closely monitor its ability to maintain its treasury strategy without further significant losses. The market's response to these developments will be critical in determining how Strategy navigates this turbulent landscape.