Standard Chartered Slashes Crypto Price Targets Amid Market Turmoil
By John Nada·Feb 12, 2026·6 min read
Standard Chartered has cut its crypto price forecasts, expecting Bitcoin to drop to $50,000 and Ether to $1,400 amid ETF outflows and macro pressures.
Standard Chartered has revised its price targets for major cryptocurrencies, predicting a significant decline as ETF outflows and macroeconomic pressures mount. The bank now expects Bitcoin to fall to around $50,000 and Ether to potentially bottom near $1,400 in the coming months.
This forecast comes in the wake of a notable selloff, with Bitcoin trading around $67,900 and Ether at approximately $1,980 at the time of the report. Geoff Kendrick, the bank's head of digital assets research, highlighted that many ETF investors are now more likely to reduce exposure than to 'buy the dip,' intensifying selling pressure.
As the early months of 2026 unfolded, the broader crypto market has experienced a sharp downturn, with Bitcoin's price dropping almost 23% since the start of the year. This period of decline has been characterized by increased volatility and large liquidations of leveraged positions, reflecting a risk-off sentiment that has seen crypto assets correlate more closely with declining equity markets. Macro factors, including concerns about global economic growth and interest rate outlooks, have diverted investor interest towards traditional safe havens like gold.
The report noted that Bitcoin ETF holdings have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC from their peak in October 2025, leaving many investors with unrealized losses of around 25%. This significant outflow from ETFs signals a shifting sentiment among investors, many of whom are now grappling with the harsh reality of declining asset values. The average purchase price of Bitcoin for these ETF investors hovers around $90,000, which deepens the concern as current market valuations remain substantially lower.
Despite this bleak outlook, Kendrick remarked that the current market drawdown is less severe than in previous cycles. The analyst noted that at its worst point in early February, Bitcoin was down about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high, yet approximately half of the Bitcoin supply remained in profit, indicating that the losses, while sharp, are not as extreme as those witnessed in prior downturns. Crucially, this cycle has not seen the collapse of major crypto platforms, unlike the failures of Terra/Luna and FTX in 2022, which had sent shockwaves through the market. Kendrick suggested that this resilience points to the maturation of the asset class.
Looking ahead, while the near-term outlook appears grim, Kendrick maintains his long-term targets for Bitcoin and Ether at $500,000 and $40,000, respectively. He argues that the underlying usage trends and structural drivers for digital assets remain intact despite the current volatility. This perspective may provide some reassurance to institutional investors navigating the turbulent crypto landscape, but it also underscores the urgent need for clarity in regulation and market stability to foster renewed confidence among participants.
The broader implications of these revisions by Standard Chartered are significant, especially as they reflect a cautious stance amid ongoing market pressures. As the crypto market contends with these challenges, the evolution of regulatory frameworks will play a critical role in shaping its future trajectory. Many investors are keenly awaiting regulatory clarity, particularly in the U.S., as stalled regulations have contributed to the current market uncertainty.
Kendrick's analysis comes at a time when macroeconomic conditions are weighing heavily on investor sentiment. For instance, U.S. economic data has shown signs of softening, and the markets do not expect any interest-rate cuts before Kevin Warsh's first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Federal Reserve chair in mid-June. This anticipation of sustained interest rates limits near-term support for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, which have historically thrived in more favorable monetary conditions.
The sharp decline in trading revenues for crypto-exposed firms is another indicator of the prevailing bearish sentiment. The market is witnessing increased caution among investors, with many choosing to liquidate positions rather than risk further losses. This trend highlights a shift in investor psychology, from one of speculative optimism to a more cautious, risk-averse approach.
As the selloff continues, Kendrick suggests that the market may eventually establish a bottom. He anticipates a recovery trend through the rest of 2026, contingent upon stabilizing macroeconomic conditions and renewed investor confidence. While the immediate future may seem bleak, historical trends indicate that markets can rebound, particularly if underlying demand for digital assets remains strong.
Analysts and market participants alike are closely monitoring developments in the regulatory landscape. The lack of clear guidelines has left many investors in a state of uncertainty, further exacerbating the market's volatility. The success of cryptocurrencies in the coming years may hinge on how regulators approach digital assets, balancing the need for oversight with the desire to foster innovation.
In addition to the macroeconomic and regulatory pressures, the ongoing technological advancements within the crypto space also play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics. Innovations in blockchain technology, decentralized finance (DeFi), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) continue to attract interest from developers and investors alike. These advancements could provide a foundation for future growth, potentially mitigating some of the short-term pressures currently faced by the industry.
As Standard Chartered's revised targets reflect a cautious outlook, they also serve as a reminder of the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Investors must remain vigilant and adaptable, ready to respond to rapid shifts in market sentiment and external economic influences. The lesson from the past cycles remains relevant: while downturns can be painful, they often pave the way for subsequent recoveries and renewed interest in digital assets.
In light of the current market conditions, the role of institutional investors has become increasingly important. Their participation can bring much-needed stability and credibility to the market, but it is contingent upon a clear regulatory framework that fosters confidence. As Standard Chartered continues to navigate this evolving landscape, its insights will be invaluable for investors looking to make informed decisions in a challenging environment.
As market participants brace for what lies ahead, the interplay between macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, and technological advancements will undoubtedly shape the future trajectory of the cryptocurrency market. While Standard Chartered's updated forecasts may be sobering for many, they also highlight the resilience of the crypto ecosystem and the potential for recovery as the market adjusts to new realities.