Oil-linked Futures Surge Amid U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran
By John Nada·Feb 28, 2026·4 min read
Oil-linked futures surged after U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran reignited fears of supply shocks. This escalation could complicate central banks' inflation management.
Oil-linked futures on Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 surged after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran reignited fears of supply shocks. The coordinated missile strikes, which occurred on a Saturday, resulted in significant explosions across Tehran and several other cities, marking a dramatic escalation in ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Iran, being a key oil producer, holds a crucial position in the global oil market, and any disruption to its oil supply can have far-reaching effects on pricing and availability.
Perpetual futures tied to oil prices trading on decentralized exchange Hyperliquid saw notable increases, with Oil-USDH climbing more than 5% to $71.26, while another contract, USOIL-USDH, advanced above $86.00. The trading volume for these contracts combined reached nearly $4 million, with over $5 million in notional open interest, reflecting a strong market response to the geopolitical unrest. This surge illustrates how sensitive oil markets are to geopolitical events, especially those involving major oil-producing nations like Iran.
The impact of the missile strikes extended beyond oil futures, leading to a rise in gold and silver contracts, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical risk. As investors sought to hedge against potential market volatility, the on-chain derivatives market provided a continuous venue for trading, enabling investors to react swiftly to breaking news and adjust their positions accordingly. Unlike traditional markets that operate on set hours and close on weekends, platforms like Hyperliquid offer 24/7 trading, which is crucial during times of significant global events that can shift market dynamics rapidly.
Iran's strategic importance cannot be understated, as it controls much of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime route through which over $500 billion worth of oil and gas passes annually. This narrow channel is essential for global oil shipments, with approximately 20 percent of the world's oil traveling through its waters. The potential for Iran to leverage its control of the strait has long been a concern for analysts, who caution that an escalation in military conflict could lead to significant disruptions in oil supply, triggering a surge in global oil prices.
As the situation unfolded, Iran retaliated by targeting multiple U.S. airbases in the region, further complicating the already tense geopolitical landscape. The immediate reaction from markets highlights the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and global financial markets. Rising oil prices, driven by fears of supply constraints, could lead to inflationary pressures that complicate the monetary policies of central banks worldwide. With borrowing costs already a consideration for growth, any spike in oil prices could hinder efforts to stimulate economic activity and encourage risk-taking among investors.
Although some experts suggest that a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely or impractical, the threat alone is enough to instigate market fears and volatility. Many in the crypto community have expressed concerns on social media platforms, speculating that Iran's actions could lead to severe disruptions in oil supply, potentially driving prices up to $120 or even $150 per barrel. These fears reflect a broader anxiety about how geopolitical tensions can influence financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, which are often seen as alternative investments during traditional market turmoil.
Despite the potential for rising oil prices to create inflationary shocks, several analysts argue that any sustained price spike would likely be temporary. They point out that while markets are rattled by the prospect of conflict, history suggests that oil markets can be resilient and adapt to changing geopolitical circumstances. However, the uncertainty surrounding military engagements and their potential fallout continues to keep traders and investors on high alert.
As the situation develops, central banks are faced with the challenge of managing inflation while also fostering economic growth. The delicate balance they must strike becomes even more complex in light of geopolitical events that can quickly shift market sentiment. Investors are left to navigate these turbulent waters, weighing the risks against potential opportunities in a rapidly changing financial landscape. The recent missile strikes and their aftermath serve as a stark reminder of how interconnected the world has become, where events in one region can have immediate and profound effects on global markets, especially those tied to essential commodities like oil.