Matt Hougan Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $6.5 Million in 20 Years
By John Nada·Jan 30, 2026·3 min read
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin could reach $6.5 million in the next 20 years, citing rising institutional interest and macroeconomic factors.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan boldly predicts that Bitcoin could soar to $6.5 million per coin in the next two decades. After a challenging 2025, he sees Bitcoin trading sideways and anticipates rising institutional interest alongside central banks' growing curiosity about the cryptocurrency. During an appearance on CoinDesk's Markets Outlook, Hougan characterized the current market phase as a 'rounding bottom' with Bitcoin avoiding significant losses due to strong buying from corporations and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Despite a bear market that saw many altcoins drop over 60%, Bitcoin's resilience is notable. According to Hougan, the market is currently marked by weak ETF flows and muted retail participation, indicating a period of patience before the next upward movement. He expects Bitcoin to fluctuate between roughly $75,000 and $100,000 in the first half of the year, noting that there is still a considerable amount of Bitcoin available around the $100,000 mark.
Looking ahead, Hougan believes a breakout is more likely later in the year as regulatory clarity improves. He points to gold’s recent rally as a supporting factor for Bitcoin’s long-term case, linking the surge to global concerns about fiat currencies and asset seizure risks. He views Bitcoin as a superior alternative to gold, suggesting that increasing demand dynamics will ultimately guide more interest toward it.
Central banks are starting to take notice as well, with Bitwise already engaging in discussions with multiple regional institutions. However, these banks are still focused on fundamental inquiries regarding Bitcoin’s security and risks rather than implementation specifics. Hougan anticipates that central banks will eventually hold Bitcoin—possibly even more than gold—but believes widespread adoption will take 10 to 20 years.
The core assumption behind Hougan's $6.5 million projection is not just accelerating adoption but the ongoing growth of global debt, money printing, and currency debasement. He argues Bitcoin's value will rise as long as economic conditions remain similar to the past 15 years.
Moreover, declining Bitcoin volatility is critical for institutional adoption. Hougan often compares Bitcoin’s volatility to that of established stocks, illustrating that Bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia, a popular stock among investors. He expects this trend to continue, with Bitcoin remaining the fastest-growing major financial asset.
In summary, while the short-term outlook may involve some choppiness, Hougan maintains a confident long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s potential. Regulatory clarity could hasten the onset of the next bull phase, though it isn't a prerequisite for the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory. As ETFs, stablecoins, and tokenization continue to expand, the fundamentals for Bitcoin appear solid. Hougan believes that the conditions are ripe for a strong performance in 2026.