ETFs Outyielding S&P 500 — Defensive Plays Amid Recession Fears

John NadaBy John Nada·Jul 3, 2026·4 min read
ETFs Outyielding S&P 500 — Defensive Plays Amid Recession Fears

With S&P 500 yields at 1%, investors eye consumer staples and utilities ETFs for better returns. These sectors shine with steady earnings amid downturns.

The S&P 500 yields only about 1%, leaving income investors searching for alternatives. This low yield trend results from rapidly rising stock prices, which have surged faster than dividend payments can match, thus compressing yields and squeezing those reliant on dividend income. In this challenging environment, income-focused investors are seeking alternatives that offer both stability and higher yields.

Consumer staples and utilities emerge as two sectors that provide a compelling proposition. These sectors are the unsung heroes of the investment world, primarily due to their inelastic demand nature. Households might cut discretionary spending during economic downturns, but essentials like electricity, groceries, and household products remain necessities. This inelastic demand helps these sectors generate steadier earnings, even during recessions.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as XLP and XLU provide a simple, low-cost means of gaining exposure to these defensive sectors. Both ETFs invest exclusively in large, liquid, profitable companies within the S&P 500, offering above-market dividend yields and historically lower volatility. This doesn't mean they are risk-free, but they have historically experienced smaller drawdowns than the broader market during major bear markets.

The U.S. economy has showcased remarkable resilience over the past two decades. The COVID-19 pandemic briefly punished the economy, but the downturn was short-lived. Swift actions by the Federal Reserve, such as slashing interest rates to near zero and launching quantitative easing, stabilized financial markets and supported lending. Even during the inflation shock and the 2022 bear market, economic activity held up better than many expected. GDP continued to expand, productivity remained strong by historical standards, and the labor market stayed resilient. Notably, while hiring cooled in the technology sector, healthcare employment continued to grow steadily.

This economic resilience has led to a stock market sitting near record highs. While this is advantageous for capital appreciation, it is less favorable for income investors. When stock prices rise much faster than dividend payments, yields naturally compress, leaving many retirees and income-focused investors searching for alternatives. If the goal is to boost portfolio income without venturing into complex strategies like covered calls, one straightforward approach is tilting toward sectors that have historically paid higher dividends.

Many investors instinctively gravitate toward real estate or energy for higher dividends, but these sectors tend to be economically sensitive and can experience sharp earnings declines during recessions. In contrast, consumer staples and utilities present a stronger case, as they offer products and services that people continue to purchase regardless of the economic backdrop. This resilience is not just about the products they deliver but the ability of these sectors to thrive in various economic conditions.

In the context of exchange-traded funds, XLP and XLU stand out as representatives of these resilient sectors. XLP focuses on consumer staples, encompassing companies that produce everyday goods and household essentials. This ETF includes some of the largest and most established companies in the industry, known for consistent earnings and reliable dividend payments. XLU, on the other hand, is centered around utilities, which provide essential services like electricity and water. Utilities are considered a defensive sector due to their predictable cash flow and stable demand, making them attractive during economic uncertainties.

Both XLP and XLU have demonstrated their defensive characteristics during past economic downturns. Historically, these ETFs have shown lower volatility compared to the broader market, making them a favorable choice for risk-averse investors. During major bear markets, their losses have often been smaller than those of the overall market, providing a cushion for investors seeking stability.

The reliability of these sectors extends beyond just their defensive nature. The steady earnings and above-market dividend yields they offer are particularly appealing to income-focused investors, especially retirees who rely on dividends to supplement their income. In times of economic uncertainty or potential downturns, the importance of such defensive plays grows significantly.

For those looking to bolster income without delving into the complexities of covered calls, tilting towards these sectors offers a straightforward strategy. With the economy facing potential challenges, the appeal of consumer staples and utilities continues to rise. These sectors aren't just surviving; they provide a solid foundation when the ground shakes.

Scroll to continue