Citigroup Lowers Bitcoin and Ethereum Targets Amid U.S. Legislative Stalemate
By John Nada·Mar 17, 2026·5 min read
Citigroup has revised its price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum due to stalled crypto legislation in the U.S. The bank's outlook reflects broader market uncertainties.
Citigroup has slashed its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, citing a slowdown in U.S. legislative momentum regarding cryptocurrency, weak network activity, and reduced expectations for ETF inflows. The bank now projects Bitcoin will reach $112,000 and Ethereum $3,175, down significantly from previous forecasts of $143,000 and $4,304, respectively. Even with these revised targets, substantial upside potential remains, especially as Bitcoin was trading around $74,000 at the time of publication.
The bank's assessment indicates that inflows are a critical factor for future price movements. Despite a recent uptick in ETF demand, which Citigroup acknowledges, the firm has lowered its expectations for 12-month demand assumptions. Analyst Alex Saunders highlighted that ETF demand remains pivotal, with Citigroup reducing its estimate to $10 billion for Bitcoin and $2.5 billion for Ethereum, which are still seen as significant positive drivers for the market.
Recent trends show that the crypto markets have struggled to regain momentum since Bitcoin’s record highs in October. Factors like weak risk appetite and diminishing enthusiasm post-halving have contributed to a price decline. With Bitcoin trading below key technical levels and Ethereum lagging due to soft on-chain activity, the market's outlook appears shaky. However, ETF inflows have provided some stabilization, even amidst broader macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.
The future of the market heavily relies on U.S. regulation, with Citigroup noting a narrowing window for passing digital asset legislation this year. The odds of such legislation have fallen to about 60%, which could significantly impact institutional flows. The CLARITY Act, a comprehensive crypto market-structure bill that has cleared the House, remains stalled in the Senate amid competing proposals. This legislation is considered vital for clarifying the classification of digital assets and determining regulatory oversight, which could reduce legal ambiguity and encourage institutional investment.
Citigroup's report emphasizes the importance of clear regulatory guidelines, as many institutional investors are waiting for clarity before allocating more capital to crypto markets. The ongoing turf battle between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has created confusion, and the CLARITY Act aims to resolve this by establishing clear rules for how digital assets are classified and which agencies oversee them. This could ultimately reduce regulatory risk, making the market more attractive to institutional players.
Weakening momentum in the crypto market has been evident since Bitcoin's October peak. Futures liquidations and positioning fatigue have further pressured prices. Citigroup's analysis suggests Bitcoin may continue to range trade, with approximately $70,000 being a crucial psychological level ahead of the upcoming elections. The bank's bullish scenario hinges on stronger end-investor adoption through ETFs, projecting a target of $165,000 for Bitcoin if momentum shifts positively. This target reflects a scenario where increased adoption of Bitcoin and Ethereum through ETFs leads to a surge in demand and subsequent price appreciation.
Conversely, the bear case aligns with recessionary macro conditions, projecting a much lower target of $58,000 for Bitcoin. This scenario underscores the vulnerability of the cryptocurrency market to broader economic factors that could dampen investor sentiment and spending. Ethereum's outlook is particularly uncertain, given its sensitivity to on-chain activity, which has remained weak recently. The lack of robust on-chain metrics indicates that Ethereum may struggle to attract new investment without significant developments or improvements in its underlying network activity.
Despite these uncertainties, there are signs of potential upside from trends in stablecoin growth, tokenization, and regulatory focus on decentralized finance (DeFi). These trends could enhance usage and demand for Ethereum in the future, particularly as institutional interest in DeFi solutions continues to grow. As regulatory clarity improves, many believe that institutional investors will become more comfortable exploring Ethereum-based projects, potentially leading to increased network activity and higher valuations.
The potential impact of the CLARITY Act cannot be overstated, as it is seen as a pivotal factor in the future of digital asset regulation in the United States. The act would provide the necessary framework for crypto firms to operate with greater certainty, thereby encouraging investment and innovation in the space. However, the current legislative gridlock in the Senate poses challenges for timely implementation, leaving the market in a state of limbo.
As the political landscape evolves, the implications for cryptocurrency markets could be profound. Investors are closely monitoring legislative developments, as any progress towards meaningful regulation could serve as a catalyst for renewed optimism and capital inflows. Conversely, continued inaction may lead to further uncertainty and potentially deter investment in cryptocurrencies.
The interplay between macroeconomic factors, legislative developments, and market sentiment will continue to shape the trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. Analysts suggest that the market may experience volatility as these dynamics unfold, emphasizing the importance of staying informed about both regulatory changes and broader economic indicators.
In the immediate term, traders and investors are advised to keep a close eye on technical indicators that may signal potential entry or exit points. With Bitcoin hovering around the $74,000 mark, maintaining above key support levels will be crucial for any bullish momentum to materialize. On the flip side, should prices fall below critical thresholds, it could trigger further selling pressure and exacerbate the bearish sentiment.
As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, the role of institutional investors will likely become more prominent. The anticipated growth in ETF products catering to Bitcoin and Ethereum could serve as a bridge for traditional investors seeking exposure to these digital assets without the complexities of direct ownership. This could further solidify the position of Bitcoin and Ethereum as mainstream investment vehicles.