Bitcoin's $60K Plunge: Are We at the Bear Market Midpoint?
By John Nada·Feb 11, 2026·4 min read
Bitcoin's significant drop to $59,930 could mark a pivotal point in the current bear market, as analysts weigh the implications for future price movements.
Bitcoin’s recent drop to $59,930 may signal a critical juncture in the ongoing bear market, according to Kaiko Research. This decline, representing a 32% crash, is the most significant correction since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, suggesting that the market has transitioned from a euphoric phase into a historically typical bear market that typically lasts about a year before a new accumulation cycle begins. Kaiko's analysis highlights concerning trends in the crypto market, including a 30% decline in aggregate spot trading volume across the top ten centralized exchanges, dropping from approximately $1 trillion in October 2025 to about $700 billion in November. A decline of this magnitude indicates a widespread retreat from market activity, reflecting investor caution and a shift in sentiment as many traders reassess their positions in light of recent volatility.
Additionally, the combined futures open interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased from $29 billion to $25 billion, indicating ongoing deleveraging and market caution. This drop in open interest signifies that traders are reducing their exposure to leverage, which can be a precursor to further price declines or at least a hesitation to enter new positions in an uncertain market environment. This shift aligns with the historical four-year halving cycle, but the complexity of current catalysts has raised questions about the depth of this bear market. Notably, Bitcoin’s recent performance reflects a critical moment in its cyclical behavior.
According to Kaiko, this 32% crash may represent a halfway point in the current bear market, with the decline marking a significant pivot from the post-halving euphoria seen earlier in the year. The market's reaction to the halving and subsequent price movements have historically followed a pattern, but the current landscape is fraught with unique challenges that complicate predictions. The key question now for investors is whether the recent plunge represents the low point of the current bear market. The $60,000 level coincides with Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, a significant historical support line that many traders watch closely for signs of market stability.
The 200-week moving average has acted as a psychological barrier in previous cycles, and its relevance in the current climate cannot be overstated. However, analysts remain divided, with some believing the dip marks a local bottom, while others point to a potential further retracement. Some estimates suggest Bitcoin could drop to between $40,000 and $50,000 based on historical cycle patterns. This potential for a deeper correction is not merely speculative; it is rooted in historical trends where Bitcoin has experienced drawdowns of 60% to 68% during bear markets.
According to Kaiko, the current retracement of 52% from Bitcoin’s previous all-time high is relatively shallow compared to previous cycles, which could imply that the market has not yet fully adjusted to the new reality post-halving. As market volatility is expected to continue in the absence of crypto-specific catalysts, the outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain yet compelling. Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, suggests that the current environment will likely be characterized by ongoing fluctuations, adding to the complexity of making informed investment decisions. He states that, while many in the industry believe we may revert to a conventional four-year cycle, there are equally prominent voices suggesting that the current market dynamics might defy those historical patterns.
Kaiko's report also mentions that the ongoing deleveraging reflects broader trends in investor sentiment. The significant drop in trading volume and open interest indicates a market that is not only reacting to price movements but is also recalibrating expectations for future performance. The sentiment among investors is crucial, as record lows in investor sentiment often precede market recoveries, but they also can lead to further selling pressure if fear dominates decision-making processes. Some market participants argue that $60,000 already marked a local bottom.
Analyst and MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe called the crash to $60,000 the local market bottom for Bitcoin’s price, citing a record low in investor sentiment and a critical low in the relative strength index (RSI), which sank to values last seen during previous bear markets in 2018 and 2020. This RSI metric often serves as an indicator of potential trend reversals, leading some traders to believe that a rebound could be on the horizon. As the crypto market continues to navigate these turbulent waters, the implications for long-term investment strategies are profound. Investors are urged to remain vigilant, taking into account the historical context of Bitcoin’s price movements while also being aware of the unique factors currently influencing the market.
The interplay of technical analysis, market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions will likely shape the trajectory of Bitcoin in the months to come, making it imperative for stakeholders to stay informed and adaptable in their approaches to trading and investment.