Bitcoin ETFs Face $410M Outflows Amid Standard Chartered Forecast Cut
By John Nada·Feb 13, 2026·6 min read
Bitcoin ETFs have seen $410M in outflows as Standard Chartered lowers its price forecast, indicating ongoing market turbulence.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw heightened selling on Thursday, with outflows accelerating the same day Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 Bitcoin forecast. Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs recorded $410.4 million in outflows, extending weekly losses to $375.1 million, according to SoSoValue data. Unless Friday brings substantial inflows, the funds are on track for a fourth consecutive week of losses, with assets under management (AUM) nearing $80 billion, down from a peak of almost $170 billion in October 2025. This decline in AUM illustrates the growing unease among investors who are reassessing their positions in the wake of shifting market dynamics.
The selling coincided with Standard Chartered lowering its 2026 Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000, warning that prices could fall to $50,000 before recovering. In a Thursday report shared with Cointelegraph, the bank stated, “We expect further price capitulation over the next few months,” indicating a bearish sentiment that is resonating through the crypto market. This forecast is significant as it reflects a broader apprehension among analysts about the future trajectory of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Standard Chartered's report does not only address Bitcoin but also predicts that Ether (ETH) could drop to $1,400. Such predictions underscore the interconnected nature of the cryptocurrency market, where movements in Bitcoin often precipitate shifts in other digital assets. “Once those lows are reached, we expect a price recovery for the remainder of the year,” Standard Chartered added, projecting year-end prices for BTC and ETH at $100,000 and $4,000, respectively. These projections suggest that while a downturn is anticipated in the short term, a potential rebound could occur later in the year, offering a glimmer of hope to beleaguered investors.
The negative sentiment has persisted across all 11 Bitcoin ETF products, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund suffering the largest outflows of $157.6 million and $104.1 million, respectively, according to Farside. The scale of these outflows indicates a significant flight of capital from some of the most prominent investment vehicles in the crypto space. Investors are clearly reacting to the changing landscape and are perhaps opting for a more cautious approach as volatility ramps up.
In contrast to the struggles faced by Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, Solana ETFs have managed to record minor inflows, totaling $2.7 million. This development hints at a shifting investor preference amidst the broader market downturn, suggesting that some investors may be exploring alternative cryptocurrencies that offer potentially higher growth prospects or resilience during turbulent times. The contrasting performance of Solana ETFs does raise questions about the specific factors driving investor interest in this asset compared to Bitcoin and Ether.
Analysts caution that the market may not yet have reached an extreme bear phase, suggesting potential further downside before a recovery can be expected. This situation highlights the delicate balance of investor sentiment and market dynamics as Bitcoin navigates through turbulent waters. Standard Chartered’s latest Bitcoin forecast follows previous analyst forecasts that Bitcoin could dip below $60,000 before testing a recovery. Such projections illustrate a consensus among some analysts that further price declines might be on the horizon, reinforcing the notion that the current market environment is fraught with uncertainty.
Crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant reiterated that realized price support remains at around $55,000, which has not yet been tested. “Bitcoin’s ultimate bear market bottom is around $55,000 today,” CryptoQuant stated in a weekly update shared with Cointelegraph. The notion of a support level at $55,000 is critical for investors as it serves as a psychological barrier that could influence trading behavior. Should Bitcoin approach this level, it could trigger a wave of buying as investors seek to capitalize on perceived bargains.
“Market cycle indicators remain in the bear phase, not extreme bear phase,” CryptoQuant noted, adding, “Our Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has not entered the Extreme Bear regime that historically marks the start of bottoming processes, which typically persist for several months.” This commentary provides insight into the broader market sentiment, indicating that while bearish trends are evident, there may still be room for stabilization before any potential recovery begins.
Bitcoin hovered around $66,000 on Thursday, briefly dipping to $65,250, according to CoinGecko data. The fluctuation in Bitcoin’s price reflects ongoing market volatility, which can be attributed to various factors, including macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and changing investor sentiment. These price movements are critical for traders and investors as they navigate the complexities of the crypto landscape.
Despite ongoing selling pressure, long-term holder (LTH) behavior does not indicate capitulation, with holders currently selling around breakeven. This observation is significant as it suggests that long-term investors are maintaining their positions, potentially waiting for more favorable market conditions before taking decisive action. “Historical bear market bottoms formed when LTHs endured 30–40% losses, indicating further downside may be required for a full reset,” CryptoQuant added. The behavior of long-term holders can serve as a barometer for market health, and their reluctance to sell at a loss may imply confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
The current turmoil in the Bitcoin ETF market reflects a larger narrative within the cryptocurrency space, where investor sentiment can shift rapidly in response to external pressures. As the market continues to grapple with uncertainties, the interplay between institutional forecasts, investor behavior, and broader economic conditions will be pivotal in shaping the future of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The landscape remains complex, with multiple factors at play, including regulatory scrutiny, market psychology, and technological advancements.
The implications of Standard Chartered's forecast and the consequent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs are far-reaching. They not only affect the immediate market dynamics but also signal to investors the potential risks associated with cryptocurrency investments. The recent trends suggest that while some investors may be retreating from Bitcoin in favor of other assets, the underlying interest in cryptocurrency as a whole remains robust, evidenced by continued inflows into Solana ETFs. This divergence in investor behavior underscores the need for a nuanced understanding of the crypto market and the factors that influence asset performance.
As we move forward, the importance of monitoring these developments cannot be overstated. The dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market necessitates a keen awareness of both macroeconomic indicators and specific asset performance metrics. Investors are advised to stay informed and consider the broader context of market trends when making investment decisions. The road ahead for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is likely to be marked by volatility and uncertainty, making it essential to navigate these waters with caution and strategic foresight.