Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge After Prolonged Outflow Streak, Eyeing $90,000
By John Nada·Feb 28, 2026·6 min read
Bitcoin rebounds with over $1B in ETF inflows, sparking speculation of a rise to $90,000 in March, despite cautious market sentiment and overhead supply pressures.
Bitcoin has rebounded sharply, recovering from an early-February slide that briefly pushed it to $60,000 and produced its most oversold signal on record, easing some of the pressure that has weighed on crypto markets. This recovery is underscored by a recent three-day stretch of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking the strongest inflow period this month, according to CryptoSlate's data. As Bitcoin steadied around $67,300, briefly approaching the $70,000 mark, the market sentiment improved, fostering speculation that the digital asset could rise to $90,000 by March.
Despite this renewed optimism, traders remain cautious. The Bitcoin options market reflects a lack of conviction in this recovery, as traders are still paying for downside protection. For instance, the March 27 $90,000 call option traded with an implied probability of less than 6% that Bitcoin will reach that level by the expiry date. Specifically, on Deribit, this call option recently traded around $522, indicating that while there is optimism for a price rebound, traders are not fully confident in its likelihood. Additionally, the March 27 $50,000 put was near $1,380, implying roughly a 20% chance of a deeper drop, highlighting the market's cautious stance.
Open interest data from CME Group reveals a bullish skew in March expirations, with approximately $660 million in call open interest compared to $240 million in puts. This 3-to-1 ratio suggests that while there is optimism, there is still a significant degree of caution among traders. The mix of rising implied volatility for calls and puts indicates a market still buying downside insurance rather than one convinced the selloff is over. On February 5, the 25-delta implied volatility rose to 75% for calls and 95% for puts, both the highest since 2022, while the 25-delta risk reversal slid to minus 19.34, its lowest level since 2022.
Derivatives positioning indicates a market transitioning from panic to conditional optimism, as indicated by easing volatility levels and improving sentiment metrics. Glassnode reported that Bitcoin volatility has eased back into the 50% range, a level more consistent with consolidation than panic. This suggests that while traders are preparing for potential upward movement, they remain guarded against possible setbacks. Across the March 27 expiry, the market shows call accumulation at $80,000 and $90,000 alongside meaningful put interest at $60,000 and $55,000, signaling investors want upside exposure without dropping hedges.
However, the road to a sustained recovery is fraught with challenges. Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative $2.6 billion in net outflows since the start of 2026, which contradicts the recent inflow trend. This trend marks a sharp shift from the same period a year earlier, suggesting one of Bitcoin’s most visible institutional demand channels has been subtracting from momentum rather than adding to it. While the recent inflows exceeding $1 billion over a few days signal a potential turnaround, they do not establish a durable trend. A continued stretch of negative flows could dampen any upward momentum, leaving spot buyers to manage selling pressure alone.
Overhead supply clusters pose another significant hurdle as Bitcoin attempts to approach the $90,000 mark. These clusters, identified between $82,000 and $117,000, are likely to weigh on price movement as holders with unrealized losses may opt to sell during relief rallies. The market is currently experiencing selling pressure concentrated in the $60,000 to $72,000 demand corridor, reinforcing the challenges Bitcoin faces in its quest for a higher price.
Market dynamics are further complicated by upcoming macroeconomic events, which could influence Bitcoin's demand. The U.S. jobs report set for March 6 and consumer price index data due on March 11 are pivotal. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 17-18 could sway interest-rate expectations, impacting investor sentiment across risk assets, including Bitcoin. Recent reports indicate that the Fed is expected to maintain its benchmark rate within a 3.50% to 3.75% range, which does not provide a clear easing signal for Bitcoin. The cautious stance by the Fed could deter aggressive buying in the crypto markets, contributing to a more subdued price action.
Recent attempts to retake the $70,000 level have been met with profit-taking, illustrating the thin liquidity environment Bitcoin currently operates within. As noted by Glassnode, the smoothed net realized profit and loss surged above $5 million an hour as Bitcoin peaked near $69,400 before experiencing a stall. This profit-taking behavior reinforces the notion that any upward movement will be scrutinized by market participants, and highlights the ongoing struggle between bullish sentiment and the prevailing cautious outlook.
Given the combination of ETF inflows, macroeconomic indicators, and traders' cautious positioning, March presents both opportunities and uncertainties for Bitcoin. Softer inflation data, a less restrictive Federal Reserve stance, and sustained ETF demand could catalyze a sharp price increase. However, the market's ongoing demand for downside protection illustrates lingering doubts about the sustainability of any upward momentum. As traders navigate this complex landscape, their actions will be critical in shaping Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming weeks.
Ultimately, the interplay between institutional demand through ETFs and macroeconomic conditions will dictate Bitcoin's trajectory. The potential for significant price moves remains, but achieving a clear path to $90,000 will require overcoming substantial overhead resistance and demonstrating consistent inflow trends, reflecting broader market confidence. Market participants are closely monitoring these dynamics, as they understand that the confluence of factors could either propel Bitcoin to new heights or lead to further consolidation in the face of continued selling pressure. The coming weeks will be crucial as traders and investors adjust their strategies in response to the evolving market landscape, each move potentially critical in determining Bitcoin's next major price direction.
As March unfolds, the necessity for sustained ETF inflows becomes apparent. If Bitcoin is to move beyond a slow recovery, the exchange-traded fund market remains the clearest source of additional demand. The recent inflows, despite the previous prolonged outflow streak, signify a potential shift in sentiment among institutional investors. However, for a robust rally toward $90,000, the ETF market would likely need several more strong sessions in close succession to absorb overhead supply and help create the kind of feedback loop that draws in additional spot demand. While Bitcoin's recent performance offers a glimmer of hope, the broader context remains one of cautious optimism, as traders remain vigilant in the face of uncertainty.