$500M Flows into Bitcoin ETFs — Rebound Yet to Inspire US Spot Market
By John Nada·Jul 8, 2026·3 min read
Bitcoin ETFs attracted $500M in inflows, yet the US spot market remains hesitant. Exchange reserves rise, challenging sustained accumulation.
Bitcoin ETFs in the US drew almost $500 million over two trading sessions, marking a notable rebound after weeks of outflows, CryptoSlate reported. On July 2, these funds ended a 10-day streak of outflows, while post-Independence Day, they registered another $265.69 million in inflows. The inflow on July 2, amounting to $221.72 million, was particularly significant, as it marked the first back-to-back inflows since May.
Yet, despite this influx, the broader US spot market hasn't mirrored this optimism. Bitcoin continues to trade at a discount on Coinbase, indicating that US buyers aren't fully embracing the rally. The Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, underscoring weaker demand stateside. This index tracks the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance, reflecting demand from US-linked participants. A negative reading indicates that Bitcoin remains cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance, which suggests that domestic buyers are not bidding as aggressively as offshore traders.
CryptoSlate noted that the ETF uptick hasn't pulled Bitcoin's price above $63,000 while the market grapples with ongoing selling pressure. Despite a 7% rise in Bitcoin's price this month, the market's broader absorption issues persist. CryptoQuant's Axel Adler highlighted that Bitcoin's risk-off regime persists and its apparent demand remains below zero. On-chain data suggests traders aren't absorbing newly issued Bitcoin at the pace needed for a sustained recovery.
The metric of newly issued Bitcoin against inactive supply shows a negative demand, though slightly improved from its June low. This reading fell to about -275,000 BTC on June 3, its weakest point of the year, before recovering to about -75,000 BTC. However, this is still insufficient for a reversal, indicating that demand has not been strong enough to absorb available supply on a sustained basis.
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Joao Wedson of Alphractal mentioned that exchange reserves are rising, another sign of potential market pressure. An increase in exchange reserves could imply more Bitcoin is available for sale, contrary to long-term accumulation patterns. Exchange reserves can rise for several reasons, including custody changes and internal transfers, but are closely watched because they suggest more supply is available for sale.
Wintermute pointed out that current macro conditions and thin liquidity might support a relief rally, even without strong demand signals. Macro factors like a dovish Federal Reserve stance and easing global tensions contribute to the narrative, suggesting that these conditions could lift a market that had been heavily pressured without requiring a deeper shift in investor appetite.
BlockScholes provided a tactical view, citing a rebound in its Risk Appetite Index. Historically, such dips have led to notable Bitcoin price gains in subsequent months. The firm noted that Bitcoin's risk-appetite gauge has fallen below -1.2 only eight times before, with spot prices producing a median gain of 12% over the following 100 days. Ultimately, the market's bullish case hinges on macro conditions rather than confirmed demand.
However, positioning can only carry the market so far. A stronger recovery would still need repeated ETF inflows, a rebound in the Coinbase premium, and on-chain evidence that available supply is being absorbed rather than moving back toward exchanges.